Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 on Hip Fractures in Korea Without Lockdown: Interrupted Time Series Analysis Using a Nationwide Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate the change in the incidence rate, length of hospital stay (LOS), in-hospital mortality rate, and surgical method of hip fractures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in South Korea where lockdown restrictions were not implemented. METHODS: We calculated the expected values of the incidence of hip fractures, in-hospital mortality and LOS of hip fracture patients in 2020 (COVID period) based hip fracture database of the Korean National Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) during a 9-year period from 2011 to 2019 (pre-COVID period). A generalized estimating equation model with Poisson distribution and logarithmic link function was used to estimate adjusted annual percent change (PC) of incidence rate and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Then, we compared the annual incidence, in-hospital mortality rate and LOS in 2020 with the expected values. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of hip fracture in 2020 was not significantly different from the expected value (PC, -5%; 95% CI, -13 to 4; P = 0.280). In women, the incidence rate of hip fracture in age groups over 70 years was smaller than the predicted value (P < 0.001). The in-hospital mortality rate was not significantly different from the expected value (PC, 5%; 95% CI, -8 to 19; P = 0.461). The mean LOS was larger than the expected value by 2% (PC, 2%; 95% CI, 1 to 3; P < 0.001). In intertrochanteric fracture, the proportion of internal fixation was smaller than the predicted value by 2% (PC, -2%; 95% CI, -3 to -1; P < 0.001), and that of hemiarthroplasty was larger than the predicted value by 8% (PC, 8%; 95% CI, 4 to 14; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In 2020, the incidence rate of hip fracture did not significantly decrease, and in-hospital mortality rate did not significantly increase compared to the expected rates, which were projected based on the HIRA hip fracture data from 2011 to 2019. Only LOS increased slightly.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Prevalence, Mortality, and Associated Risk Factors for Mortality in Patients with Hip Fractures: A Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess (1) the prevalence of COVID-19 in patients with hip fracture; (2) the mortality rate of patients with hip fracture associated with COVID-19; (3) risk factors associated with mortality in patients with hip fracture; and (4) the effects of COVID-19 on surgical outcomes of patients with hip fracture. DESIGN: Meta-analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients with hip fractures during COVID-19. METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were systematically reviewed. The outcomes included the prevalence of COVID-19, case fatality rate, 30-day mortality, cause of death, risk factors associated with the mortality of patients with hip fracture, time to surgery, surgical time, and length of hospitalization. Risk ratio or weight mean difference with 95% confidence intervals were used to pool the estimates. RESULTS: A total of 60 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled estimate showed that the prevalence of COVID-19 was 21% in patents with hip fractures. Patients with hip fracture with COVID-19 had an increased 30-day mortality risk compared with those without the infection. The main causes of death were respiratory failure, COVID-19-associated pneumonia, multiorgan failure, and non-COVID-19 pneumonia. The hospitalization was longer in patients with COVID-19 when compared with those without the infection, but was shorter in patients during the pandemic period. The surgery time and time to surgery were not significantly different between patients during or before the pandemic period and in those with or without COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The 30-day mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with hip fracture with COVID-19 infection than those without. Patients with COVID-19 had a higher all-cause mortality rate than those without. This information can be used by the medical community to guide the management of patients with hip fracture with COVID-19.

Hospital Courses Differ Amongst Hip Fracture Patients With or Without Coronavirus-19 Positive Status Upon Admission.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to compare the hospital course and disposition of COVID-19 positive versus negative patients following an operatively managed hip fracture. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study evaluated patients presenting to a university medical center with a hip fracture who underwent surgical management between February 1, 2020 and April 1, 2021. COVID-19 diagnosis was obtained using PCR testing. Hospital length of stay, disposition, readmission, and mortality were compared between patients with and without COVID-19. RESULTS: 399 total patients were identified who met inclusion criteria, with 14 patients who were COVID-positive (3.1%). There was a 6.1 day increase in length of hospital stay for COVID-19 positive patients compared to those who were COVID negative (p = 0.002), without significant changes in disposition, readmission rates, or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A positive COVID-19 test at the time of admission can significantly increase hospital admission duration. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III, Retrospective Cohort Study.

Decreasing incidence rates of osteoporotic hip fractures in Ecuador during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We aimed at comparing the incidence of hip fractures in older adults from Ecuador before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a significant reduction in the number of hip fractures, with no change in the length of hospital stay, mortality, and case-fatality rate, during the period of social isolation. INTRODUCTION: The impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on fragility fractures is being recently evaluated in the literature. Despite this, data from Latin America in this regard is scarce. PURPOSE: This study aims to compare the incidence rate of hip fractures before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in older adults who received care in the public and private health system of Ecuador. METHODS: This was a descriptive and retrospective study that analyzed data of individuals aged 60 years and older who had hip fractures before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The information was obtained from the National Hospital Discharge Yearbook. We calculated the incidence, average length of hospital stay, mortality, and case-fatality rate associated with hip fractures. RESULTS: There was a significant reduction in the incidence of hip fractures in adults 60 or older during the period of social isolation due to COVID-19. Between March and December 2019, there was an incidence of 152 hip fractures per 100,000 inhabitants, whereas during the same period but in 2020 in the incidence was 110 per 100,000 inhabitants (p < 0.0001). The main decrease was observed in women aged 80 or more. The average length of hospital stay did not show significant changes. Mortality displayed a non-significant decrease (p = 0.14), although this decrease was significant among women (p = 0.02). Case-fatality rate showed a non-significant increase for the whole group (p = 0.68) and for men (p = 0.09). CONCLUSION: Hip fracture rates decreased significantly in adults aged 60 and older in 2020 compared to 2019. This decrease of hip fracture incidence rates was mainly due to the reductions observed in older people and women. The average length of hospital stay, mortality, and case-fatality rate associated with hip fractures did not show significant changes during the pandemic.

IMPACT of COVID-19 on hip fracture services: A global survey by the International Multicentre Project Auditing COVID-19 in Trauma & Orthopaedics.

INTRODUCTION: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in major disruption to hip fracture services. This frail patient group requires specialist care, and disruption to services is likely to result in increases in morbidity, mortality and long-term healthcare costs. AIMS: To assess disruption to hip fracture services during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A questionnaire was designed for completion by a senior clinician or service manager in each participating unit between April-September 2020. The survey was incorporated into existing national-level audits in Germany (n = 71), Scotland (n = 16), and Ireland (n = 16). Responses from a further 82 units in 11 nations were obtained via an online survey. RESULTS: There were 185 units from 14 countries that returned the survey. 102/160 (63.7%) units reported a worsening of overall service quality, which was attributed predominantly to staff redistribution, reallocation of inpatient areas, and reduced access to surgical facilities. There was a high rate of redeployment of staff to other services: two thirds lost specialist orthopaedic nurses, a third lost orthogeriatrics services, and a quarter lost physiotherapists. Reallocation of inpatient areas resulted in patients being managed by non-specialised teams in generic wards, which increased transit of patients and staff between clinical areas. There was reduced operating department access, with 74/160 (46.2%) centres reporting a >50% reduction. Reduced theatre efficiency was reported by 135/160 (84.4%) and was attributed to staff and resource redistribution, longer anaesthetic and transfer times, and delays for preoperative COVID-19 testing and using personal protective equipment (PPE). CONCLUSION: Hip fracture services were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic and this may have a sustained impact on health and social care. Protection of hip fracture services is essential to ensure satisfactory outcomes for this vulnerable patient group.

Risk factors for postoperative medical morbidity and 3-month mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture following hip arthroplasty during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the current study was to investigate the incidence of postoperative medical complications and 3-month mortality in patients ≥ 70 years old with hip fracture following hip arthroplasty (HA) and independent risk factors associated with postoperative medical complications and 3-month mortality during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: A multicenter retrospective study was conducted, patients ≥ 70 years old with HA for hip fracture under general anesthesia were included during COVID-19 and before COVID-19 pandemic. The outcome was defined as postoperative medical complications and 3-month mortality. The baseline characteristics and risk factors were collected, multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for postoperative medical complications and 3-month mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1096 patients were included during COVID-19 pandemic and 1149 were included before COVID-19 pandemic in the study. Patients ≥ 70 years with hip fracture for HA had longer fracture to operation duration (7.10 ± 3.52 vs. 5.31 ± 1.29, P < 0.001), and the incidence of postoperative medical complications (21.90% vs. 12.53%, P < 0.001) and 3-month mortality (5.20% vs. 3.22%, P = 0.025) was higher during COVID-2019 pandemic. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that dementia (OR 2.73; 95% CI 1.37-5.44; P = 0.004), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR 3.00; 95% CI 1.92-4.71; P < 0.001), longer fracture to operation duration (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.19-1.30; P < 0.001) were associated with increased risk for postoperative medical complications. COPD (OR 2.10; 95% CI 1.05-4.17; P = 0.035), dementia (OR 3.00; 95% CI 1.11-7.94; P = 0.031), postoperative medical complications (OR 4.99; 95% CI 2.68-9.28; P < 0.001), longer fracture to operation duration (OR 1.11; 95% CI 1.04-1.19; P = 0.002) were associated with increased risk for 3-month mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, we found that postoperative medical morbidity and 3-month mortality in patients with hip fracture underwent HA were 21.90% and 5.20%, respectively, during the COVID-19. COPD, dementia and longer fracture to operation duration were associated with negative outcome in patients with hip fracture underwent HA during the COVID-19.

Effects of COVID-19 confinement on the incidence and mortality of major osteoporotic fractures: an observational study in Catalonia, Spain.

There is little information on how the COVID-19 lockdown influenced the epidemiology of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF). We analyzed the incidence and mortality of MOF in 2020 compared with 2018-2019 in Catalonia, Spain. The incidence of MOF decreased steeply, and post-fracture mortality increased during the lockdown and throughout 2020. PURPOSE: To analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown on major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) incidence and mortality in Catalonia in 2020 and describe how age, sex, and the prior comorbidity burden influenced the epidemiology of MOF types. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, data on age and sex in people aged ≥ 50 years with a new diagnosis of MOF in 2018, 2019, and 2020 were collected. Average daily rates (ADR) were estimated overall and for five MOF: hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus, vertebrae, and pelvis. Morbidity was assessed using Adjusted Morbidity Groups. ADR in 2020 and the previous years were compared for overall and site-specific MOF in four consecutive time periods: pre-confinement, lockdown, deconfinement, and post-confinement. Thirty-day post-fracture mortality was assessed. COVID-19-related mortality was obtained from the Catalan COVID-19 register. RESULTS: From 2018 to 2020, there were 86,412 MOF. The ADR of MOF initially increased in 2020 before the pandemic, decreased steeply during lockdown, and remained lower in the rest of the year. The decrease was steeper in vertebral, pelvic and arm fractures, and lower in hip fractures. Differences were more pronounced in younger age groups and people with fewer comorbidities. Mortality increased throughout 2020, reaching a 2.5-fold increase during lockdown. Excess mortality was directly associated with COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Mobility restrictions due to COVID-19 were associated with a reduction in MOF incidence in Catalonia, especially in younger people and in non-hip fractures. Post-fracture mortality was higher than in previous years due to the high COVID-19 mortality in the elderly.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on osteoporotic hip fractures in Chile.

The study analyzes whether the COVID-19 pandemic affects annual hip fractures (HF) rates and weekly emergency department (ED) consultations and hospitalizations due to trauma in older people. During the COVID-19 pandemic, HF rates and ED consultation and hospitalization rates due to trauma decreased. PURPOSE: To describe the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on annual HF rates and weekly ED consultation and hospitalization rates due to trauma in Chile in 2020, compared to 2016-2019. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted based on data from Chile's Department of Statistics and Health Information. Annual HF admissions, weekly ED consultations and hospitalizations due to trauma were described for the years 2016-2020, grouping the years 2016-2019 to compare them with 2020. Rates were calculated per 100.000 inhabitants. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2020, a total of 35.050 patients aged ≥ 65 years were hospitalized in Chile with a diagnosis of HF, with the lowest number of admissions in 2020 (6.423). During 2020, annual HF rate was 273.6/100.000, representing a decrease of 18.5% compared to the average annual HF rate of 2016-2019 (335.7/100.000). In 2020, the weekly consultation rate due to trauma in older adults decreased by 20.8% and the weekly hospitalization rate due to trauma in older adults decreased by 18.5%. CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, osteoporotic HF rates decreased, along with ED consultation and hospitalization rates due to trauma in older adults. This could be a result of mobility restrictions and a significant increase in the proportion of self-reliant older adults in the Chilean population.

Determination of risk factors of postoperative pneumonia in elderly patients with hip fracture: What can we do?

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pneumonia is a serious complication in elderly patients with hip fracture. It is necessary to identify the influencing factors of postoperative pneumonia in patients with hip fracture. METHODS: Elderly patients with hip fractures admitted to a tertiary hospital in China from January 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021 were included. The characteristics of patients with and without postoperative pneumonia were evaluated and compared. Logistic multivariate regression analyses were conducted to assess the risk factors of postoperative pneumonia. RESULTS: 267 patients with hip fracture were included, the incidence of postoperative pneumonia in patients with hip fracture was 13.11%. There were significant differences in the age, diabetes mellitus, anemia, hypoalbuminemia, anesthesia method and duration of surgery between infection and no infection group, no significant differences in the gender, BMI, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, type of fracture, preoperative oxygen saturation, white blood cell count, platelet count, red blood cell count, creatinine, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, estimated blood loss during surgery were detected between infection and no infection group. Logistic regression analysis showed that age≥70y (OR2.326, 95%CI1.248~3.129), diabetes mellitus (OR2.123, 95%CI1.021~3.551), anemia (OR3.199,95%CI1.943~5.024), hypoalbuminemia (OR2.377, 95%CI1.211~3.398), general anesthesia (OR1.947, 95%CI1.115~3.038), duration of surgery≥120min (OR1.621, 95%CI1.488~2.534) were the risk factors of postoperative pneumonia in elderly patients with hip fracture (all p<0.05). Escherichia Coli (33.33%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (28.57%), Staphylococcus aureus (21.43%) were the most common bacteria of pulmonary infection. CONCLUSION: There are many risk factors for postoperative pneumonia in elderly patients with hip fractures after surgery. In clinical practice, medical workers should take targeted interventions for those risk factors to reduce postoperative pneumonia.

COVID-19 during the index hospital admission confers a 'double-hit' effect on hip fracture patients and is associated with a two-fold increase in 1-year mortality risk.

PURPOSE: The aims were to: (1) determine 1-year mortality rates for hip fracture patients during the first UK COVID-19 wave, and (2) assess mortality risk associated with COVID-19. METHODS: A nationwide multicentre cohort study was conducted of all patients presenting to 17 hospitals in March-April 2020. Follow-up data were collected one year after initial hip fracture ('index') admission, including: COVID-19 status, readmissions, mortality, and cause of death. RESULTS: Data were available for 788/833 (94.6%) patients. One-year mortality was 242/788 (30.7%), and the prevalence of COVID-19 within 365 days of admission was 142/788 (18.0%). One-year mortality was higher for patients with COVID-19 (46.5% vs. 27.2%; p < 0.001), and highest for those COVID-positive during index admission versus after discharge (54.7% vs. 39.7%; p = 0.025). Anytime COVID-19 was independently associated with 50% increased mortality risk within a year of injury (HR 1.50, p = 0.006); adjusted mortality risk doubled (HR 2.03, p < 0.001) for patients COVID-positive during index admission. No independent association was observed between mortality risk and COVID-19 diagnosed following discharge (HR 1.16, p = 0.462). Most deaths (56/66; 84.8%) in COVID-positive patients occurred within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis (median 11.0 days). Most cases diagnosed following discharge from the admission hospital occurred in downstream hospitals. CONCLUSION: Almost half the patients that had COVID-19 within 365 days of fracture had died within one year of injury versus 27.2% of COVID-negative patients. Only COVID-19 diagnosed during the index admission was associated independently with an increased likelihood of death, indicating that infection during this time may represent a 'double-hit' insult, and most COVID-related deaths occurred within 30 days of diagnosis.

Trends in osteoporotic fracture and related in-hospital complications during the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta, Canada.

Fragility fractures (i.e., low-energy fractures) account for most fractures among older Canadians and are associated with significant increases in morbidity and mortality. Study results suggest that low-energy fracture rates (associated with surgical intervention and outcomes) declined slightly, but largely remained stable in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic. PURPOSE/INTRODUCTION: This study describes rates of low-energy fractures, time-to-surgery, complications, and deaths post-surgery in patients with fractures during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Alberta, Canada, compared to the three years prior. METHODS: A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted using provincial-level administrative health data. Outcomes were assessed in 3-month periods in the 3 years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic and in the first two 3-month periods after restrictions were implemented. Patterns of fracture- and hospital-related outcomes over the control years (2017-2019) and COVID-19 restrictions periods (2020) were calculated. RESULTS: Relative to the average from the control periods, there was a slight decrease in the absolute number of low-energy fractures (n = 4733 versus n = 4308) during the first COVID-19 period, followed by a slight rise in the second COVID-19 period (n = 4520 versus n = 4831). While the absolute number of patients with low-energy fractures receiving surgery within the same episode of care decreased slightly during the COVID-19 periods, the proportion receiving surgery and the proportion receiving surgery within 24 h of admission remained stable. Across all periods, hip fractures accounted for the majority of patients with low-energy fractures receiving surgery (range: 58.9-64.2%). Patients with complications following surgery and in-hospital deaths following fracture repair decreased slightly during the COVID-19 periods. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that low-energy fracture rates, associated surgeries, and surgical outcomes declined slightly, but largely remained stable in the first few months of the pandemic. Further investigation is warranted to explore patterns during subsequent COVID-19 waves when the healthcare system experienced severe strain.

Surgical treatment for fragility hip fractures during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in lower short-term postoperative functional outcome and a higher complication rate compared to the pre-pandemic period.

The COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected the functional outcomes of fragility hip fracture patients. This study revealed a higher in-hospital complication rate and lower postoperative function at 3 months among patients treated during the pandemic. Therefore, modified in-hospital and post-discharge protocols should be developed for implementation during pandemic crisis periods. INTRODUCTION: This study aims to investigate the in-hospital complication rate and short-term postoperative functional outcomes of fragility hip fracture (FHF) patients compared between during the COVID-19 pandemic and the same 14-month time period 1 year prior to the pandemic. METHODS: Using data from the Siriraj Fracture Liaison Service registry, FHF patients treated during the COVID-19 pandemic (1 March 2020 to 30 April 2021) were time-matched with FHF patients treated during the pre-pandemic period (1 March 2018 to 30 April 2019). We collected the rate of in-hospital postoperative complications and the postoperative functional outcomes at discharge and 3 months as measured by the Barthel Index (BI) and EuroQol visual analog scale (EQ-VAS). Functional outcome measures were compared between the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. RESULTS: There were 197 and 287 patients in the pre-pandemic and pandemic groups, respectively. At the 3-month postoperative follow-up, the mean postoperative BI score and change in BI score were both significantly lower in the pandemic group indicating poorer postoperative function. Moreover, FHF patients treated during the pandemic had significantly more in-hospital complications (36.6% vs. 22.8%, p = 0.002). There was no significant difference in the 3-month EQ-VAS or change in the EQ-VAS between groups. CONCLUSION: The results of this study revealed a higher in-hospital complication rate and lower postoperative function at 3 months among FHF patients treated during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. Therefore, modified in-hospital and post-discharge protocols should be developed for implementation during pandemic crisis periods.

The Impact of COVID-19 on SARSCoV-2-Negative Elderly Patients with Hip Fractures: A Single-Center Retrospective Study from Shanghai, China.

Purpose: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought an unprecedented change in wellbeing globally. The spread of the pandemic reportedly reduced the incidence of activity-related trauma, while that of fragility fractures remained stable. Here, we aimed to identify the risk factors associated with the prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 negative elderly patients with hip fractures. Patients and Methods: This retrospective study included elderly patients with hip fractures between 1st January and 9th May during the COVID-19 pandemic (Experiment group) and the same period from 2017 to 2019 (Control group). Perioperative mortality, complications, and functional recovery were compared between two groups of different time frame in the total cohort and patients who received surgical treatment. Multiple linear regression was carried out to identify the risk factors influencing the prognosis of COVID-negative elderly patients with hip fractures. Results: The proportion of patients with admission time less than 24 hours and the 6-month postoperative Parker score were significantly decreased during COVID-19 compared with the pre-COVID-19 period (p < 0.001). Multiple linear regression demonstrated that TTA (defined as time from injury to admission), rehabilitation after discharge and outpatient follow-up were associated with the 6-month Parker score in the total population (p < 0.001) and in patients who received surgical treatment (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Elderly patients with hip fractures had a poorer prognosis in epidemic period despite being COVID-19 negative. Factors including timely admission, postoperative follow-up, and rehabilitation could optimize safety and significantly improve the prognosis of elderly COVID-19 negative patients with hip fractures, even during a pandemic.

Developing a minimum common dataset for hip fracture audit to help countries set up national audits that can support international comparisons.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to explore current use of the Global Fragility Fracture Network (FFN) Minimum Common Dataset (MCD) within established national hip fracture registries, and to propose a revised MCD to enable international benchmarking for hip fracture care. METHODS: We compared all ten established national hip fracture registries: England, Wales, and Northern Ireland; Scotland; Australia and New Zealand; Republic of Ireland; Germany; the Netherlands; Sweden; Norway; Denmark; and Spain. We tabulated all questions included in each registry, and cross-referenced them against the 32 questions of the MCD dataset. Having identified those questions consistently used in the majority of national audits, and which additional fields were used less commonly, we then used consensus methods to establish a revised MCD. RESULTS: A total of 215 unique questions were used across the ten registries. Only 72 (34%) were used in more than one national audit, and only 32 (15%) by more than half of audits. Only one registry used all 32 questions from the 2014 MCD, and five questions were only collected by a single registry. Only 21 of the 32 questions in the MCD were used in the majority of national audits. Only three fields (anaesthetic grade, operation, and date/time of surgery) were used by all ten established audits. We presented these findings at the Asia-Pacific FFN meeting, and used an online questionnaire to capture feedback from expert clinicians from different countries. A draft revision of the MCD was then presented to all 95 nations represented at the Global FFN conference in September 2021, with online feedback again used to finalize the revised MCD. CONCLUSION: The revised MCD will help aspirant nations establish new registry programmes, facilitate the integration of novel analytic techniques and greater multinational collaboration, and serve as an internationally-accepted standard for monitoring and improving hip fracture services. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(6):721-728.

Is It Possible to Predict the Length of Stay of Patients Undergoing Hip-Replacement Surgery?

The proximal fracture of the femur and hip is the most common reason for hospitalization in orthopedic departments. In Italy, 115,989 hip-replacement surgeries were performed in 2019, showing the economic relevance of studying this type of procedure. This study analyzed the data relating to patients who underwent hip-replacement surgery in the years 2010-2020 at the "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" University Hospital of Salerno. The multiple linear regression (MLR) model and regression and classification algorithms were implemented in order to predict the total length of stay (LOS). Lastly, using a statistical analysis, the impact of COVID-19 was evaluated. The results obtained from the regression analysis showed that the best model was MLR, with an R2 value of 0.616, compared with XGBoost, Gradient-Boosted Tree, and Random Forest, with R2 values of 0.552, 0.543, and 0.448, respectively. The t-test showed that the variables that most influenced the LOS, with the exception of pre-operative LOS, were gender, age, anemia, fracture/dislocation, and urinary disorders. Among the classification algorithms, the best result was obtained with Random Forest, with a sensitivity of the longest LOS of over 89%. In terms of the overall accuracy, Random Forest and Gradient-Boosted Tree achieved a value of 71.76% and an error of 28.24%, followed by Decision Tree, with an accuracy of 71.13% and an error of 28.87%, and, finally, Support Vector Machine, with an accuracy of 65.06% and an error of 34.94%. A significant difference in cardiovascular disease, fracture/dislocation, and post-operative LOS variables was shown by the chi-squared test and Mann-Whitney test in the comparison between 2019 (before COVID-19) and 2020 (in full pandemic emergency conditions).